Long-range forecasters from AccuWeather issue an early forecast on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.
We still have almost two months to go before the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season officially starts, but some forecasters have already issued their early predictions on how the season will shape up.
Long-range forecasters at AccuWeather are calling for another active hurricane season, but say it likely won't be as busy as the 2017 season, which produced 17 named storms and a string of destructive hurricanes that pounded Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the southern United States.
AccuWeather is expecting 12 to 15 tropical storms to form in the Atlantic basin this year, with six to eight of those storms strengthening into hurricanes. Three to five of the hurricanes are expected to turn into major ones -- with Category 3, 4 or 5 strength.
Category 3 hurricanes pack sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 storms carry winds of 130 to 156 mph and Category 5 hurricanes pack catastrophic winds stronger than 156 mph.
During a typical hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, the Atlantic basin gets 12 named storms, six of which develop into hurricanes. The basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
Warm water temperatures
"Similar to last year, sea surface temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal across most of the basin and normal to above normal over the main developmental region, where more than 85 percent of all tropical storms form," AccuWeather said in its hurricane outlook issued on Monday.
"Right now, we are in a weakening La Nina pattern, but the climate pattern is expected to go into what's called a neutral pattern, which promotes near-normal wind shear," said Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather's Atlantic hurricane expert.
Wind shear helps limit tropical development by interfering with the circulation of storms and breaking them apart.
However, "the thing that's causing the balance to tip in one direction (in 2018) is that sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal," Kottlowski said.
Warm water temperatures play a big role in the development of tropical systems.
Most active hurricane seasons
- The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active on record, with 28 named storms -- including ultra-destructive Katrina -- according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
- Five hurricane seasons are tied for second place, all with 19 named storms: 1887, 1995, 2010, 2011 and 2012.
- The 2017 hurricane season produced 17 named storms, including Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria. It is believed to be the most destructive hurricane season on record in terms of the damage caused by the storms.
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.