Two major computer models are projecting a different storm track, but the Garden State could still get hit with moderate snow and pounding surf. Watch video
Most of the key ingredients for a powerful winter nor'easter this weekend are coming together, but one of the most important elements -- the storm track -- remains uncertain.
As of late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, after another round of data was generated by different weather computer models, the forecast got a bit more complicated. One of the major computers, the often reliable European model, pushed the likely storm track further south than most models had originally projected. Another major model, the American GFS, is projecting the storm to stay a bit more north, move more slowly and dump more snow across New Jersey and the mid-Atlantic region.
If the latest GFS projections hold up, New Jersey could be in for a major snowstorm with heavy accumulations, strong sustained winds and pounding surf from late Friday night to Saturday, and perhaps lingering into early Sunday morning.
Preliminary snowfall projections by the American GFS, one of several weather computer models. (WeatherBell) If the storm track stays further south, forecasters say, the Garden State could still be hit with moderate amounts of snow, strong winds and coastal flooding late Friday night into Saturday, but the impact wouldn't be as severe as the worst-case scenarios.
With the storm track shifting further south, the heaviest bands of snow would likely fall in northern Virginia and Washington, D.C., which could get pounded with as much as 2 feet of snow, some forecasters are projecting.
Major flooding threat
For New Jersey, the biggest concern at this time is the possibility of severe flooding and beach erosion along the Atlantic coast and Delaware Bay because of the high tides and anticipated storm surge from strong winds associated with the nor'easter.
"Wherever this storm goes, there's a huge concern" for coastal areas of New Jersey, Rob Reale, a meteorologist at WeatherWorks in Hackettstown, said Wednesday morning. "There's still going to be significant coastal flooding."
In a storm briefing posted late Tuesday, the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly said the "threat of coastal flooding has increased," and "major coastal flooding is now expected on the Atlantic coast" in Delaware and New Jersey, along with moderate to major flooding along Delaware Bay.
PLUS: The 5 ingredients for blockbuster snow this weekend
The high winds that are expected to be generated by the weekend storm could increase the risk of power outages in the Garden State, so emergency management officials are advising homeowners to prepare for that possibility in addition to preparing for flooding.
"We know it's early but keep an eye on the upcoming weather, especially possible flooding," the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management posted on its Twitter page.
On Wednesday, most likely in the afternoon, the weather service is expected to release its first snowfall projections for New Jersey.
Reale said it's still too early at this time to project reliable snowfall numbers, but central and southern New Jersey is more likely to get heavier snow amounts than northern New Jersey.
Much depends on the ultimate storm track and whether rain mixes in with the snow, particularly closer to the coast.
"The storm is still over 60 hours away," Reale said. "Things can change, and things often do change."
An updated graphic on the upcoming major winter storm. #njwx #dewx #pawx #mdwx pic.twitter.com/hcEPY5hXSY
-- NWS Mount Holly (@NWS_MountHolly) January 20, 2016
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality. Find NJ.com on Facebook.