The storm is expected to remain in the same general area of the ocean from Monday through Wednesday, which could generate pounding surf and widespread flooding along the Jersey Shore.
Forecasters say Tropical Storm Hermine could strengthen back into a hurricane as it slowly moves up the Atlantic coast this weekend, putting the Jersey Shore at high risk for powerful winds and a high storm surge.
Based on the current track of the storm, the weather service is projecting a storm surge -- ocean water that's pushed onshore by strong winds -- of 1 to 3 feet in coastal sections of Atlantic and Cape May counties.
"Given it's over the warm water, it definitely has the potential to restrengthen," said Lance Franck, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's regional forecast office in Mount Holly. He noted, however, that "there's still some uncertainty in the intensity," so residents and vacationers along the Shore should monitor the latest forecasts and advisories.
UPDATE: Hermine could batter Shore with record flooding
After battering Florida with torrential rain and 80 mph winds early Friday morning as a category 1 hurricane, Hermine weakened to a tropical storm and now is heading north and east across southern Georgia, with 50 mph winds. Forecasters from the National Hurricane Center said the storm will move offshore, off the coast of North Carolina, on Saturday and is likely to strengthen with hurricane-force winds as it tracks offshore near Maryland early Sunday.
The storm is then projected to slowly drift north and east, with the storm's center parking itself about 150 to 200 miles east of Delaware and southern New Jersey by early Monday morning. That's the general area where the storm will remain from Monday through Wednesday, forecasters said.
Causing the storm to essentially stall out for a few days are two factors, said Sean Rowland, a meteorologist at WeatherWorks in Hackettstown. One is a large ridge of high pressure that will be planted over New England, which will block the storm from moving north. In addition, he said, "there's no real mechanism in the upper atmosphere to push (the storm) in any direction."
Rowland said the storm is likely to "meander off the shore for a few days," drifting slightly in different directions but probably remaining at least 100 to 250 miles away from the Jersey coast.
This map shows the projected track of Tropical Storm Hermine from Friday, Sept. 2, through Wednesday, Sept. 7. (National Hurricane Center) That means northern and central sections of New Jersey might not see much rain this weekend, and they could get occasional wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, forecasters said. Coastal areas, particularly in southern New Jersey, will likely see the strongest winds, with gusts as high as 50 mph, and pockets of heavy rain
Assuming the storm remains far offshore, the National Weather Service expects 4 to 6 inches of rain to fall in southeastern sections of the state. If the storm moves closer, rainfall amounts would be even higher.
5 things to know about Hermine
A tropical storm watch, which was issued on Thursday, remains in effect for the entire New Jersey coast, from Sandy Hook down to Cape May. The watch area was expanded Friday afternoon to include Middlesex County, Hudson County, eastern Union County and eastern Essex County.
As the storm moves closer and the forecast gets refined, the watches could be upgraded to warnings.
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.