Experts say there's lots of uncertainty, but even a normal hurricane season would be more active than the past three years.
Climate experts from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center are expecting a "near-normal" storm season in the Atlantic, with 10 to 16 tropical storms likely to form this year, and four to eight of those becoming hurricanes that could pose a threat to the Eastern seaboard.
The center, which announced its annual prediction late Friday morning, said there's a 45 percent chance of a near-normal hurricane season, a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season.
Tropical system could spoil Memorial Day in NJ
"This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it's difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with the Climate Prediction Center. "However, a near-normal prediction for this season suggests we could see more hurricane activity than we've seen in the last three years, which were below normal."
Contributing to the uncertainty is the status of two significant weather patterns on the other side of the country: El Nino and La Nina. Experts say El Nino -- the extreme warming of temperatures in the tropical Pacific -- is expected to dissipate by early this summer, and La Nina -- when the Pacific waters get cooler than normal -- is projected to develop sometime between August and October, during the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season.
"La Nina favors a more active hurricane season," the prediction center noted.
Other hurricane season predictions
In early April, long-range forecasters at AccuWeather said they are expecting 14 named storms in the Atlantic this year -- two more than the average number and three more than the 11 that formed in 2015. Of those 14, eight are likely to be hurricanes and six tropical storms.
Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science, which also issues tropical forecasts each year, said it expects 12 named storms this season. Of those storms, researchers expect five to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength, with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
The most active Atlantic hurricane seasons during recent years were 2010 and 2012. Each of those years, there were 19 named storms, with 12 strengthening into hurricanes in 2010 and 10 becoming hurricanes in 2012, including Sandy, which caused widespread destruction in New Jersey.
Although the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, one hurricane that formed earlier this year counts as part of the 2016 hurricane season. Back in January, when people in the Northeast were bracing for a nasty blizzard, a rare winter tropical storm formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, and it was named Alex. The storm strengthened into a hurricane on Jan. 14, then weakened into a tropical storm as it hit the Azores Islands off the coast of Portugal.
Memorial Day spoiler?
Meanwhile, forecasters are keeping a close eye on a weather system near Florida that could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend and threaten coastal areas from northern Georgia to southern Virginia.
That system has the potential of dumping heavy rain on New Jersey late Sunday into Monday, forecasters said.
Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality. Find NJ.com on Facebook.